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Applications for reception class places in London have fallen by 2.67% this year, according to new data, fuelling concerns about the financial viability of some primary schools, which may be forced to merge or close as pupil numbers decline.
London Councils, the cross-party group representing local authorities in the capital, said there had been a “significant” decrease in the number of applications for reception classes for the start of the academic year in September.
Primary schools received 87,277 applications – 582 fewer than last year – with falling birthrates thought to be the main cause for the decline. Between 2012 and 2021 there was a 17% decrease in the city’s birthrate.
Other factors thought to be at play include the aftermath of Brexit and Covid, which has prompted some families to leave the capital, while rising rent costs have driven others to find cheaper accommodation elsewhere.
London Councils said application numbers vary across different boroughs but warned the reduction in demand in some areas has the potential to impact funding of individual schools as most funding is allocated on a per pupil basis.
“This is in the context of many schools struggling to balance budgets this academic year due to a combination of factors, including inflationary price increases, and a shortage of teaching and support staff which has led to increased spending on more expensive agency staff,” the organisation said.
Hackney council is one of those affected and is considering closing or merging six of its primary schools as a direct result of the decrease in pupil numbers. According to the council, there were 634 vacant reception places this year compared with just 10 in 2014. In Southwark up to 16 primaries could be at risk.
Monday was national primary offer day in England, when families find out which school their four-year-old will go to in September. In the capital – and elsewhere – the decline in applications enabled more families to secure a place at one of their preferred schools.
In London 98% of families got one of their preferred school places while 88.5% – 77,260 children – secured a place at their first preference school. This is an increase of 0.6% on last year’s figures.
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Cllr Ian Edwards, London Councils’ executive member for children and young people, said: “It is positive that once again the overwhelming majority of children have an offer from one of their preferred schools. London boroughs are continuing to work with schools experiencing decreasing demand for school places to achieve good outcomes for young Londoners.
“We remain keen to work with government to respond to pressures surrounding primary school places and to support the growing demand for development of specialist Send (special educational needs and disabilities) provision at a local level, ensuring that that all London pupils have the best start in life.”
Birmingham also saw a drop in the number of applications with 256 fewer than last year, with just under 91% of families getting their first choice. Applications increased slightly in Manchester, up from 6,213 last year to 6,310, and those securing their first choice dropped slightly from 96% to 95%.
Elsewhere, a PA Media survey found that 20 out of 35 councils that provided comparable data saw a rise in the proportion of children securing their preferred school compared with 2022. Meanwhile, 14 councils reported a decline in the proportion of families securing their top choice, and one council reported no change.
According to PA, the areas where high proportions of pupils obtained their first preference include Stockton-on-Tees in County Durham, where 98.3% got their top choice, and Calderdale in West Yorkshire, where 97.9% were offered their first pick. In contrast, in Wokingham, Berkshire, just 88.8% of children got their first preference, while in Sefton in Merseyside 89% got their top choice.
A Department for Education spokesperson said: “Today thousands of families across England will find out which school their child will join in September, and the majority will have received their first choice of primary school.”
“We have created almost 1.2m places since 2010, the largest increase in school capacity in at least two generations, and work closely with local authorities to make sure they offer a school place to every child in the country and support the long-term viability of their schools.”
